2024 Election Prediction: Senate
Current Senate Composition
The current Senate is divided with 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats.
This gives Democrats a slim 50-49 majority.
Key Races to Watch
Several key races will determine the balance of power in the Senate in 2024.
- Montana: First-term Republican Senator Steve Daines is up for reelection.
- Arizona: Democratic Senator Mark Kelly is up for reelection.
- Ohio: Republican Senator Rob Portman is retiring, leaving an open seat.
- Pennsylvania: Democratic Senator Bob Casey is up for reelection.
- Wisconsin: Republican Senator Ron Johnson is up for reelection.
Factors that Could Affect the Outcome
Several factors could affect the outcome of the 2024 Senate elections, including:
- The national political climate
- The fundraising abilities of candidates
- The effectiveness of campaign messaging
- The turnout of voters
Predictions
Most political analysts predict that the Democrats will have a difficult time holding onto their majority in the Senate in 2024.
Republicans need to gain just one seat to take control of the chamber.
The Cook Political Report rates the Senate as a "toss-up" in 2024.
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